Operation Of China'S Chemical Fiber Industry: Review 2012 Outlook 2013

< p > 2012 < a href= "http://cailiao.sjfzxm.com/Matertial/show/default.aspx" > chemical fiber industry < /a > operation < /p >

< p > 1. industry production is basically normal.

The production of chemical fiber industry is basically normal, and the operating rate of most sub industries is relatively stable compared with that of last year, and some industries are on the rise.

In 1-11 months, the output of chemical fiber reached 34 million 824 thousand and 400 tons, up 11.71% from the same period last year, and the growth rate dropped 3.17 percentage points compared with the same period last year, but it is still a two digit growth.

Among them, viscose staple fiber, polypropylene and nylon production increased rapidly, the growth rate reached 21.63%, 20.83% and 17.95% respectively; polyester production increased to below 10%, and the production of acrylic and vinylon was basically the same as that of the same period last year.

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Imports less than P > 2..

In 1-11 months, 752 thousand and 500 tons of imported chemical fiber were imported, representing a slight decrease of 5.27% over the same period last year.

According to the varieties, the import volume of acrylic fiber and nylon was large, accounting for 22.34% and 20.17% of the total imports of chemical fiber respectively, and the import of viscose staple fiber increased by 21.73%, and the increment was mainly from Austria.

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< p > 3. the growth of chemical fiber export volume has dropped sharply.

1-11 months, chemical fiber exports 2 million 266 thousand and 600 tons, a slight increase of 3.94% over the same period last year, the growth rate dropped 19.47 percentage points year-on-year.

Since 2000, the export volume of chemical fiber has maintained a relatively rapid growth, only in 2009, there was a drop due to the impact of the financial crisis.

In the first 8 months of 2012, the export volume of chemical fiber has been declining year-on-year, reflecting the sluggish demand in the international market.

It is gratifying to note that the decline in the export volume of chemical fiber has continued to narrow, and since September it has turned to a positive growth.

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< p > 5., the growth rate of industry investment has returned to a reasonable level.

The chemical fiber industry has entered the downlink cycle since the fourth quarter of last year, and the enthusiasm of industry investment has gradually returned to reason. In 1-11 months, the number of construction projects in the chemical fiber industry was 860, and 579 new projects were started. The actual investment was 79 billion 798 million yuan, an increase of 19.96% over the same period last year, a 25.86 percentage point increase over the same period last year.

But the growth of investment in nylon and nylon industry is still fast.

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< p > 6. the market performance is low.

The market price of chemical fiber main varieties showed a downward trend overall, but polyester and acrylic products rebounded significantly in 7 and August. Viscose fiber almost fell all the way; nylon prices fell rapidly in March, and the market remained stable after August; the spandex market remained low and smooth.

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The price of polyester products rose slightly after the rise, but the demand for terminal products was weak, and the demand for the polyester market continued to be weak after February. During the period, though there was a rebound, the resilience and sustainability were not obvious. In 5 and June, the polyester cost decreased as a result of the decline in polyester prices, which led to a rapid decline in polyester prices. At the end of 6, the polyester filament industry self-regulation coupled with a sharp rebound in the crude oil market, the polyester products also showed obvious recovery rebound. However, after the raw materials of the downstream enterprises were slightly stocked, their purchases were cautious. The prices of polyester products were relatively stable from mid August to mid October. The price of polyester products in the fourth quarter changed with the fluctuation of raw material prices. < p > < < a href= > //www.sjfzxm.com > polyester > /a > for example: raw material price in January

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< p > 7. production and marketing linkage is not smooth.

According to the monthly economic data of the National Bureau of statistics, the average production and sales rate of chemical fiber industry dropped to 95.93% in 1-10 months, down 1.81 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The production and sales rate of the main sub industries such as rayon, nylon, polyester, acrylic fiber and so on declined year by year, reflecting the poor market demand and the unsmooth connection between production and marketing, but the ring picked up somewhat in the past few months.

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< p > the decline in production and marketing rate directly leads to an increase in inventories.

As the downstream demand continues to slump, and the whole industry chain is not good enough for the market outlook, all links are being destocking and gradually shifting to the upstream. Therefore, the pressure of chemical fiber stocks has gradually increased in the first half of the year. By the end of June, the main stocks of chemical fiber stocks have reached the high level this year. A rough estimate is that the loss of the polyester industry due to the drop in stock prices in the middle of 5 to 6 months is about 5 billion yuan.

After the industry self-regulation at the end of June, the inventory of chemical fiber products decreased significantly. At the end of 8, some of the products fell to the lowest level in the year.

Fourth quarter, with the approaching end of the year, inventory has increased.

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< p > 8., the efficiency has declined sharply, and the quality of operation has decreased significantly.

National Bureau of statistics data show that in 1-10 months, the chemical fiber industry realized a total profit of 13 billion 421 million yuan, down 45.74% compared with the same period last year, the industry deficit reached 28.75%, and the deficit of loss making enterprises also increased by 96.45%.

However, from the monthly economic data, the economic efficiency of the industry has obviously improved since the three quarter, and the total profit of the single month has increased rapidly. Meanwhile, the loss ratio of the deficit companies has decreased significantly, and the deficit has also declined.

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< p > the quality of operation of the industry has dropped significantly.

Industry debt ratio increased, solvency declined, efficiency of capital utilization declined, profitability declined significantly, profit margin was only 2.48%, down 2.2 percentage points compared to the same period last year, and the financial expenses of 100 yuan sales revenue increased by 27.77% over the same period last year.

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< p > 2013 operation forecast of chemical fiber industry < /p >

The central economic work conference, which was held in 2012 P, is the first time that the word "fast" has been removed from the tone of the economic work conference in the past 18 years. It has emphasized the general keynote of "steady progress" and highlighted "improving the quality and efficiency of economic growth".

At present, China's economy is continuing to rise steadily since the three quarter of 2012, and the trend of moderate recovery is basically established.

The development research center of the State Council predicts that in 2013, China's economy will show a low and high growth rate, and the annual growth rate will be higher than 8%.

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There are still many uncertainties in the < p a > a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/" > world economy < /a >, but if there is no big change, it should be slightly better than in 2012.

The world economic situation and prospect in 2013, released by the United Nations in December 18, 2012, said that the world economic growth in 2012 was only 2.2%, and that it is likely to remain low in 2013 and is expected to grow by 2.4%.

The world economic yellow book issued by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in December 24th believes that the world economic growth rate in 2013 will not fluctuate much more than that in 2012. The possibility of a general or slight increase is greater.

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< p > > therefore, the economic environment of the chemical fiber industry in 2013 is relatively stable. More optimistic, it is likely to pick up, which will lift the demand for chemical fiber textile products. It is initially judged that the economic operation of the chemical fiber industry has basically bottomed out and is expected to pick up gradually.

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