There Is Little Room For RMB Appreciation.

Statistics show that in the first half of 2012, the foreign exchange deposits of enterprises increased by 114 billion 100 million US dollars, up nearly 60% from the end of 2011. In the first half of this year, the foreign exchange deposits of enterprises increased significantly by 103 billion 900 million US dollars, up by 30% over the end of last year.

The most direct impact of the significant growth of enterprises or foreign exchange deposits on the market is the continued easing of US dollar liquidity, which has led to a continuous upward trend in the RMB swap point.

On the other hand, when the market worries about the depreciation of RMB will ease, the willingness of enterprises to hoard foreign exchange will obviously weaken, and the growth of enterprises and foreign exchange deposits will also slow down obviously. At that time, the market will show stronger willingness to settle foreign exchange and promote the rebound or appreciation of the RMB exchange rate.

As the renminbi is once again turning to the expected appreciation, the new US dollar position will be effectively consumed through the settlement of foreign exchange, and the market's expectation of US dollar liquidity will also shift from easy to normal. This will also push the RMB swap point down sharply from the high level.

Therefore, there is a significant correlation between the spot rate and swap point of RMB and the liquidity of domestic dollar.

2012 swap point, RMB spot and

The trend changes can provide valuable reference for this year's trend.

However, it is noteworthy that there is no sign of a slowdown in foreign exchange deposits at present, indicating that the willingness of enterprises to hoard foreign exchange has not weakened, and the market has shifted to RMB.

Expectations are still cautious.

Therefore, we believe that although the RMB exchange rate of the three and fourth quarter is still expected to continue to rebound, but from the whole year, there is little room for appreciation.

In fact, this year is right.

The biggest uncertainty in the exchange rate market comes from changes in the central bank.

In recent years, the central bank has been the last buyer in the domestic foreign exchange market, and its passive buying scale is mainly manifested in the growth of foreign exchange reserves of monetary authorities.

The growth of foreign exchange accounted for more than the growth of foreign exchange settlement and sales in the same period. However, in the first half of this year, the central bank's behavior changed significantly, and the growth of its foreign exchange holdings for the first time was obviously less than that of the foreign exchange settlement.

This shows that in recent years, the central bank has not "tried its best" to buy foreign exchange for the first time, but rather left a considerable portion of its foreign exchange position to the market to digest itself.

Whether the central bank's change is "new normal" or "experimental period" still needs more time and data observation.

Therefore, although the Central Bank continues to promise to reduce its daily intervention in the foreign exchange market, it can not exclude the purpose of the central bank's foreign exchange liquidity management and return to the market stage buying dollar, thereby affecting short-term market expectations and triggering the risk of RMB reverse fluctuation again.