The Logic Of China'S Stock Market Rising Is Different From That Of Global Stock Markets.

China

The logic of the rise is different from that of the global stock market. It is not affected by the loose expectations of the central bank. It is led by the return of China's confidence. The main support point is that the international environmental changes are favorable. China's domestic supply side reform is steadily advancing, and the Chinese economic downturn is expected to be reversed again.

Britain's main influence on Europe is exchange rate, and its impact on the global economy is very limited. The global stock market has not underestimated the impact of Britain's withdrawal from Europe. Instead, the British stock market has benefited from the sharp depreciation of the pound in favor of global easing expectations.

The rise of global risk preference has provided a good peripheral environment for the rise of China's stock market.

Maintain the same view at the beginning of the year, and long term Black commodities.

Will not significantly exacerbate the downward trend of the global economy, risk aversion is over, global risk appetite is picking up, China's economy will end "tight credit", investment will go up, to achieve substantial results in capacity, black commodity prices upward trend is determined, but it is difficult to smooth sailing.

China's bond market is strongly ignored.

At the present time,

The central bank's monetary easing is too optimistic. At the same time, "tight credit" is difficult to sustain. "Asset shortage 2" is no longer a risk aversion.

Gold prices will be significantly callback.

At present, the price of gold has been fully reflected in the global monetary easing expectations, and at the same time, it has overreflected the downside risks of the economy.

Combined with the recent rise in global risk asset prices, global risk appetite has picked up, and high risk aversion points have passed.

Long term optimistic about China's stock market "healthy cattle".

On the one hand, changes in the international environment, changes in domestic reforms, and tight credit policies have been beneficial to the real economy, especially in improving profitability of listed companies. On the other hand, monetary easing is no longer the case. After the stock market experienced significant fluctuations in 2015, buffalo, leveraged cattle and bubble cattle are hard to emerge.