Polyester Production Cut Out Frequently, Can PTA Continue?

At present, the PTA market has been maintained at low cost, high price, high profit, low inventory and stable demand situation, and the mainstream factory bought back the market, resulting in the highest PTA processing fee reached 2014 yuan / ton.

However, the polyester plant is not smooth enough, production and marketing are flat, and inventory is showing a slight accumulation.

Processing fees are high.

chart

Source: lung Chung

As of May 8th, the PTA processing fee was at a high of 2008 yuan, a rise of 39.64 percentage points, an increase of 167.62 percentage points over the same period last year.

The price of raw materials PX moved down, but PTA prices remained strong in the mainstream factory buyout market, resulting in a continuous rise in processing fees.

At the same time, the maintenance time of PTA plant has been shortened or postponed. Because of the high PTA price and good profit, the profit of downstream polyester has been continuously compressed.

Straight line profit

chart

Source: lung Chung

It can be clearly seen from Figure 2 that the profit of polyester POY has been rising since mid March, and the highest point reached 804 yuan / ton in the middle of April.

Recently, under the influence of PTA price continuing high and polyester production and marketing flat, POY profit has declined rapidly.

As of May 8th, POY profit was 116.4 yuan / ton, down 77.15 percentage points, down 84.04 percentage points from 729.46 yuan / ton last year.

Recently, the news of production cuts has been coming out. Can the profits of polyester market be visible?

Table 1 list of polyester maintenance

Source: lung Chung

At present, the polyester production reduction device involves limited production capacity. Some of the devices are being overhauled due to power problems. Most large factories are still stable production, and there is no clear message of overhaul and loss reduction.

At present, the profit of polyester POY is close to the cost line, but it has not yet reached the level of non overhaul. However, it is not ruled out that the market overhauling is also impossible if the profit is thin and is about to enter the traditional off-season.

Overall, the PTA1905 contract is about to be delivered. It is expected that the price of the spot market will remain high in the mainstream factory, but the intensity of the reduction is limited.

According to long Zhong information, PTA prices remain high in the short term.

We need to pay close attention to the macro dynamics and the reduction of polyester factories.